Raptors suddenly leap into title contention, Heat lacking urgency
Usually, the NBA’s free agent frenzy comes and goes in a blink. The opening bell rings on June 30th and the best players are all settled in the next few hours and days.
But things are off to a slower start in 2026, no doubt in part because of the surprising availability of LeBron James and several notable restricted free agents dictating how teams want to allocate their money. A number of free agents re-signed with their teams between the end of the Finals and the beginning of free agency, but the first night was relatively slow when it came to big moves.
But even if free agency is taking its time, a number of meaningful moves came on Tuesday — the blockbuster trade of Kawhi Leonard in particular — along with news of James’ free agency. So let’s pick some winners and losers from all of Tuesday’s movement.
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Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
Hours before free agency was set to officially begin, James let the Lakers know that he would not re-sign with the franchise, ending his eight-year tenure in Los Angeles.
“Truly an honor to wear the [purple and gold] while trying to continue the greatness & legacies that came before me! Hope I made a few proud during my stint,” James wrote on social media after the team announced his departure.
While you could make the case that the Lakers will be better off in the long run by turning the team over to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, they still have to be considered losers from the first day of free agency. I mean, come on, LeBron James is walking out the door.
Even at 41 and entering a historic 24th season, James remains a top 20-25 player in the league. Last season, he averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists, and was one of 10 players to average 20/5/5. He’s also still one of the most popular athletes alive and provides a major economic boost to whichever team he’s on. Even the Lakers will suffer on that front without him. — Jack Maloney
No, THANK YOU! Truly a honor to wear the 💜💛 while trying to continuing the greatness & legacies that came before me! Hope I made a few proud during my stint. 🙏🏾🫡👑 https://t.co/RmQ6uvvgv0
— LeBron James (@KingJames) June 30, 2026
Winner: Whoever signs LeBron James
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It’s unclear when or where James will sign. For now, all signs point to him taking his time. Which, in turn, could put free agency on hold for a number of teams and players. Shortly after the Lakers announced that James would not be back, his agent, Rich Paul, released a statement to The Athletic. It reads, in part:
“LeBron knows the Lakers are building for the future, and he also wants to compete for championships… We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count,” Paul said.
There has been a significant amount of smoke about James joining the Golden State Warriors to team up with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. His two other former teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat, have also been mentioned as possibilities. In Cleveland, he could join forces with Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, while returning to Miami would allow him to play with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Additionally, the Minnesota Timberwolves were mentioned as a wild card by The Athletic’s Sam Amick. There, he could unite with two elite guards in Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball.
How much can your NBA team pay LeBron James next season? Complete cap salary guide with The King on the move
Sam Quinn
How much can your NBA team pay LeBron James next season? Complete cap salary guide with The King on the move
Of course, while James wants to “compete for championships” and “make every season he has left count,” he also wants to make some money in the process, and is not going to sign for the veteran minimum. That’s bad news for the Cavaliers, in particular, who would have to clear some space to facilitate a return for King James.
Wherever James winds up, that team will be a clear winner, for all of the reasons noted above. James is still a high-level player and a major draw, who will give his new team a boost both on and off the court. — Maloney
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Winner: Toronto Raptors
Kawhi Leonard spent one season with the Toronto Raptors and won a championship. That is a 100% championship hit rate. It is almost impossibly rare for teams to make any substantial move with a 100% success rate. The Raptors pulled that off with their reacquisition of Leonard on Tuesday.
Now, obviously, the Raptors are not guaranteed another championship. They’re frankly underdogs to even win the Eastern Conference with the defending champion New York Knicks still around. But remember, the Raptors did not have the absolute best team when they won it all in 2019. They got to the NBA Finals, Klay Thompson got hurt, Kevin Durant played 11 minutes, and they hoisted the trophy. Sometimes, you have to put yourself in a position to take advantage of someone else’s misfortune.
That’s where the Raptors are now. They have a puncher’s chance. They have two All-NBA-caliber players in Leonard and Scottie Barnes, both big wings who can guard anyone. Leonard fills in the half-court shotmaking gap that Barnes needed in a co-star, and that Brandon Ingram couldn’t provide before getting hurt against Cleveland. Between Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead, this team is loaded with defensive role players, and playoff hero RJ Barrett remains on the team on a big expiring contract.
The price here was steep. The Raptors are winners today. They could be losers tomorrow now that they have lost control of their 2031 and 2033 first-round picks to the Los Angeles Clippers. But Toronto has a genuine chance to compete for a championship. How can they not be winners? — Sam Quinn